Prediction Market Hedge & PnL Utility
Real-time Polymarket markets · hedge calculator · position PnL · arbitrage finder
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FAQ
What are prediction markets?
Financial marketplaces where users trade contracts on future events. Contracts pay $1.00 if the outcome is true and $0.00 if false.
How does position hedging work?
If your position moves in your favor, buy the opposite side. Both legs together guarantee a $1.00 payout — locking in your profit before settlement.
What is arbitrage in prediction markets?
When a market's YES and NO prices don't add up to $1.00, an opportunity exists. Buy whichever side is mispriced — if total cost < $1.00, profit is risk-free after settlement.
Are fees included in the calculations?
Yes — Polymarket's ~2% taker fee is factored into all hedge and PnL calculations. Net profit figures are shown after estimated fees.
How often does market data refresh?
Once live API integration is active, data refreshes every 60s via server-side caching. Real-time WebSocket updates are on the roadmap.
📚How Prediction Market Trading Works
🛡️ What is Hedging?
Hedging means buying the opposite side of a position you already hold. If you bought YES shares at $0.40 and the price rose to $0.70, you can buy NO shares at $0.30 — guaranteeing a profit no matter the outcome. The hedge calculator shows exactly how many shares to buy and the guaranteed profit after fees.
⚡ What is Arbitrage?
Arbitrage occurs when the same event is priced differently across two markets. If Market A prices YES at $0.55 and Market B prices YES at $0.40, you can buy YES on B and NO on A — the total cost is below $1.00, guaranteeing a profit when the event resolves. Our calculator finds the optimal leg and computes net profit after taker fees.
📈 Understanding PnL
PnL (Profit and Loss) measures how much your position has gained or lost since you entered. On Polymarket, each share pays out $1.00 if it resolves in your favor. If you bought 1,000 YES shares at $0.50 and the price is now $0.70, your unrealized PnL is +$200 — but you only realize that if you sell or the event resolves YES.
💸 Polymarket Fees
Polymarket charges a taker fee of approximately 2% on each trade. This applies to both legs of an arbitrage trade, which is why a small price divergence may not be profitable after fees. Our calculators automatically account for fees in all profit calculations — what you see is net profit, ready to compare against real market conditions.