Understanding PnL in Prediction Markets
Know exactly what your position is worth before you exit.
What is PnL?
PnL stands for Profit and Loss — the difference between what you paid for your position and what it is currently worth. In prediction markets, your position value changes every time the market price moves.
There are two types of PnL: unrealized (you still hold the position) and realized (you've sold or the event has resolved).
Key Terms Explained
The price per share you paid when you bought the position. For YES shares at $0.45, your entry price is $0.45.
The market's current price for that share. If YES is now trading at $0.65, that's your current price.
Entry Price × Number of Shares. This is the total capital you deployed.
Current Price × Number of Shares. This is what your position is worth right now if you sold at market price.
Number of Shares × $1.00. If you hold 1,000 YES shares, your max payout is $1,000 — if YES resolves correctly.
Current Value − Total Cost. Positive means you're in profit. Negative means you're at a loss.
Unrealized PnL ÷ Total Cost × 100. Shows your return as a percentage of capital deployed.
Full Example
Your position
Shares held: 500 YES
Entry price: $0.35
Current price: $0.60
Total Cost: 500 × $0.35 = $175.00
Current Value: 500 × $0.60 = $300.00
Max Payout: 500 × $1.00 = $500.00
Unrealized PnL: $300 − $175 = +$125.00
ROI: $125 ÷ $175 = +71.4%
Unrealized vs. Realized PnL
Unrealized PnL is a paper gain or loss — it only becomes real when you sell your shares or when the event resolves. Markets can move against you before resolution, turning a profit into a loss. That's why monitoring your position and deciding when to exit (or hedge) is critical.
Realized PnL is locked in once you sell or the market resolves. If you sell your 500 YES shares at $0.60 (in the example above), you realize +$125 regardless of what happens to the price afterward.
When to Exit vs. Hold vs. Hedge
- Hold if you believe the current price still undervalues the probability of your outcome.
- Sell if the price has reached your target or you need liquidity.
- Hedge if you're in profit but the outcome is uncertain — lock in guaranteed returns. See our Hedging Guide.
📊 Calculate Your PnL
Enter your entry price, current price, and share quantity to see your full position breakdown.
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